Tropical moisture is bringing a welcome drink to dry country from New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle and southeast Colorado — but several rounds of heavy rain could also put cattle, crossings and ranch infrastructure in harm's way.
Bottom Line Up Front
A broad surge of tropical moisture is bringing repeated rounds of rain across New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle and southern Colorado this week. For a part of the country that has spent much of the year watching the sky and wishing it would rain, that's mostly welcome news.
But there is such a thing as getting too much of a good thing too quickly.
Flood watches now stretch across a wide swath of the Southwest and High Plains. Heavy rainfall could turn normally dry arroyos and draws into running water, put low-water crossings underwater, damage ranch roads and fences, and create additional problems on country already scarred by this year's wildfires.
This isn't a reason to complain about rain. It's a reason to respect what water can do when several months' worth of prayers get answered all at once.
A Welcome Change in the Weather
There aren't many cattlemen from northern New Mexico to southeast Colorado who are going to gripe about seeing rain on the windshield.
Dry conditions have been part of the story across this country, affecting grass, stock water and the decisions ranchers make about how many cattle their country can carry. Moisture going into fall can do some good.
The trouble is that this particular system isn't necessarily delivering its moisture one slow, soaking shower at a time.
Deep tropical moisture has moved north into the region, combining with other weather systems to produce repeated opportunities for moderate to heavy rainfall. The details and timing vary by location, but the same general weather pattern is now affecting a large piece of cattle country.
New Mexico: Saturated Ground and More Water Coming
Across much of New Mexico, a Flood Watch is in effect through 6 a.m. Wednesday.
The National Weather Service in Albuquerque described the setup as a "near-record to record surge of moisture" combining with two storm systems and producing a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms.
That's coming after rain has already soaked portions of the state.
When the ground is already wet, the next inch of rain behaves differently than the first one.
Low country, poorly drained areas, arroyos, riverbanks and recent wildfire burn scars are among the places facing the greatest flash-flood concern.
For ranchers, the arroyo deserves particular respect. A draw can be bone dry where you're standing while heavy rain miles upstream is already putting water into it.
The New Mexico Department of Transportation has also warned that familiar roads and crossings can change quickly. Floodwater can carry debris, wash out the road beneath the surface and make water considerably deeper or faster than it appears from the pickup seat.
The Panhandle: Hurricane Polo Sends Moisture North
Farther east, moisture associated with Hurricane Polo has reached the Texas Panhandle.
Scattered lighter showers Tuesday are expected to give way to heavier rainfall and thunderstorms later in the day and overnight, with the greatest flooding concern Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.
Much of the area has been placed under a moderate risk for excessive rainfall, with Flood Watches covering portions of the region.
There is also a lower-end severe-weather threat around Amarillo and portions of the southwestern Panhandle, where damaging winds and tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Conditions are expected to improve Wednesday before a cold front brings considerably cooler weather later in the week.
For cattle operations, the overnight timing deserves attention. It's one thing to watch a creek rise from the cab during daylight. It's another to discover at daylight that cattle, a fence or the road home spent the night downstream of more water than expected.
Southeast Colorado: The Plains Are in It Too
The same broad moisture pattern reaches north into southern Colorado.
The National Weather Service in Pueblo has a Flood Watch covering the Southeast Mountains, Wet Mountain Valley, eastern Fremont County and much of the southeast plains.
That includes Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Bent, Kiowa, Prowers, Las Animas and Baca counties.
For southeast Colorado, that puts places including La Junta, Las Animas, Lamar, Eads and Springfield within the watch area.
Periods of heavy rainfall are expected as tropical moisture spreads across southern Colorado.
Recent wildfire country deserves particular attention.
The Aspen Acres burn area is specifically among the areas of concern. Fire changes how a watershed handles rain. Ground that once caught and slowed water can shed it much more quickly after vegetation has burned away, increasing the possibility of flash flooding, erosion and debris movement.
That lesson applies beyond one named fire scar. Across country affected by this year's fires, heavy rain can become the next chapter of disaster recovery even after the smoke is gone.
What Cattlemen Should Check
Most ranchers don't need a government checklist to tell them rain makes a creek rise. But this is a good week to think through the places on an operation where water can create expensive trouble.
Start with cattle
If a pasture contains creek bottoms, arroyos, normally dry draws or other low country, know where the cattle are and whether they have somewhere higher to go.
Then think about fence
Running water carrying limbs, grass and debris can lay a fence down in a hurry. A washed crossing can turn into an open gate long before somebody gets there to check it.
Stock-water infrastructure deserves a look too. Pipelines exposed at creek crossings, float systems, tanks near drainages, solar equipment and other infrastructure may be vulnerable to runoff or erosion.
And then there are the roads
The crossing you've driven through a hundred times is only familiar when the creek underneath it is behaving normally.
If water is running across a road, don't use yesterday's experience to judge today's crossing. The roadbed underneath may not be where you left it.
Rain After Fire
The flood threat also connects directly to the wildfire recovery underway across the region.
Ranchers who spent the spring and summer replacing fence, moving cattle, hauling feed and recovering from fires now have another reason to keep records of damage.
Heavy runoff can compound existing fire damage by washing fence, eroding roads and crossings, moving debris and damaging conservation work.
Where new damage occurs, photograph it before cleanup whenever safely possible and keep receipts associated with repairs.
Producers already working with FSA, NRCS, state agencies or wildfire relief organizations should distinguish new storm damage from earlier wildfire losses in their records.
That paperwork isn't the interesting part of ranching, but six months from now a photograph and a dated receipt will remember considerably more than you will.
So What?
Nobody in dry country needs a lecture about being grateful for rain.
Take every drop that'll soak in.
But tropical moisture doesn't always arrive politely.
For the next couple of days, check cattle in low country, know what's upstream from your crossings, and pay attention to fences, roads and stock-water infrastructure anywhere runoff concentrates.
Give normally dry draws more respect than usual, particularly after dark and on recently burned country.
A washed fence can be rebuilt.
A pickup doesn't need to find out how deep the creek got overnight.