Bottom Line
The sharp August feeder-cattle correction appears to be finding its footing.
Feeder futures remain well below their early-August peak, but the cash market has held up considerably better than the futures selloff initially suggested. Recent sales at La Junta, Dodge City, Beaver and OKC West show strong demand for feeder cattle and calves, while feeder futures have begun recovering from their early-September lows.
For cattlemen preparing to market calves this fall, there are two mistakes to avoid: using the extraordinary early-August highs as the only benchmark, or assuming the late-August break means cattle prices are headed steadily lower.
Right now, the evidence points toward stabilization.
August's Correction Was Real
September feeder cattle futures reached $348.375/cwt on August 5 before falling sharply through the remainder of the month.
By the end of August, the contract was down to $320.90. It subsequently traded below $319 in early September before recovering to $329.70 on September 9.
That still leaves September feeders about $18.68/cwt, or 5.4%, below the August 5 high.
Cash markets felt some of that pressure. Winter Livestock's August 25 sale at La Junta reported declines across most classes, including lightweight and heavy calves, stockers and feeding cattle.
But what happened next is increasingly important.
High Plains Cash Has Been More Resilient
The physical market has not continued falling at the same pace as futures.
At Winter Livestock in Dodge City on September 2, feeder steers and heifers were reported steady, even as calves remained softer.
By September 8 at La Junta, prices remained substantial.
Representative steer sales included:
- 345 lbs. at $563/cwt
- 400 lbs. at $509
- 510 lbs. at $390
- 550 lbs. at $380
- 615 lbs. at $345
- 725 lbs. at $331
- 810 lbs. at $338
- 980 lbs. at $299.50
Those lightweight cattle illustrate just how much value remains in this market. The 345-pound steer brought approximately $1,942 per head, while the 400-pound steer brought $2,036 per head.
The September 8 La Junta offering doesn't provide a clean apples-to-apples comparison with the August 25 cattle, but it gives little indication that another broad downward move was underway.
Beaver and OKC West Reinforce the Picture
Tuesday's Oklahoma trade adds another data point.
At Beaver Livestock, Medium and Large No. 1 steers brought approximately, by weight, on September 9:
- 500–600 lbs.: $411–$430
- 600–700 lbs.: $373–$380
- 700–800 lbs.: $334.75–$352
- 800–900 lbs.: $323.50–$340.50
- 900–1,000 lbs.: $318
Compared with the previous week's reported ranges, there was no evidence of another broad break. Several classes showed stronger prices, although differences in cattle quality, weight and individual lots mean the figures shouldn't be treated as precise week-over-week price changes.
At OKC West, 700–800-pound Medium and Large No. 1 steers brought $328–$351.25, while 800–900-pound steers brought $315–$341.
Heifers included 600–700-pound cattle at $315–$345 and 700–800-pound cattle at $307.50–$342.
Taken together with La Junta and Dodge City, the Oklahoma sales strengthen the case that the late-August decline has not developed into an across-the-board cash-market slide.
Futures Are Showing Some Recovery Too
The futures market has also improved from its early-September lows.
On September 9, CME feeder cattle settled:
- September: $329.70, up $0.825
- October: $325.825, up $0.375
- November: $321.35, up $0.90
The nearby September contract has recovered more than $10/cwt from its early-September level below $319.
That doesn't erase the August correction. It does suggest the market is trying to establish a new trading range after a volatile month.
Fed cattle and beef remain part of the equation. October live cattle settled September 9 at $215.85, down $1.175. Choice boxed beef increased $3.20 to $380.77, while Select declined $3.05 to $352.34, leaving a Choice/Select spread of $28.43.
The Market Has Changed, But Cattle Are Still Worth a Lot of Money
The important perspective is that lower than the August peak does not mean cheap cattle.
A $20/cwt swing on an 800-pound feeder changes gross value by roughly $160 per head. On a load of cattle, relatively small movements in price can quickly become thousands of dollars.
That makes the distinction between a correction and a collapsing market especially important.
August clearly produced a correction. Early September has so far produced something different: cash cattle holding their value while futures recover some lost ground.
Whether that becomes a sustained rebound remains unknown.
So What?
For cattlemen getting ready for fall runs and weaning, don't anchor exclusively to either end of the recent market.
The early-August futures highs represented an exceptionally strong market and are no longer where cattle are trading. But the late-August selloff also hasn't translated into a continuing collapse in High Plains cash prices.
Recent regional auctions suggest buyers are still willing to put substantial dollars into good cattle.
That means weight, condition, quality, lot size and marketing timing remain especially important. With cattle carrying this much per-head value, a few dollars per hundredweight matter.
The next several weeks should tell us whether September has established a durable trading range or merely paused the August decline.
For now, the simplest description is:
The August correction was real. The early-September cash market is proving resilient.
Sources & Notes
Market figures are drawn from Winter Livestock, Beaver Livestock, OKC West, National Beef Wire / DVAuction and CME market information supplied to Dey Money. Individual auction results reflect particular cattle and should not be interpreted as perfectly comparable week-to-week price measurements.
One apparent outlier in Winter Livestock's September 8 La Junta graphic — a reported 770-pound stocker heifer at $616/cwt — has been excluded pending confirmation.